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4. Conclusion and Recommendations
4.1 Conclusion
In conclusion, this paper has reviewed in detail activity and policy matters related to the Long Term
Illness Scheme, outlining the main expenditure drivers and trends in the scheme, and policy challenges
going forward.
A primary finding from the analysis is that expenditure on the scheme has grown at an exceptional
rate, averaging 10% per annum between 2013 and 2021, and almost tripling over the time period.
After assessing various expenditure drivers, claimant volume growth appears to be the most
significant contributor, however use of patent medications may also be disproportionately impacting
expenditure when volume growth is removed as a factor. The use of medications and the viability of
substitution for off-patent medication is a complex area that merits further in-depth analysis,
especially in the area of biologic medicines such as insulin, where internal reference pricing is not
applicable.
Despite various initiatives that should stabilise medicine prices, on an individual level treatment costs
are increasing. This may be indicative of an overall prescribing trend that favours patent medications
or a trend of switches to more clinically effective but more expensive new medications, which results
in this consistently growing per patient costs. This issue also merits further detailed analysis.
While the conditions funded by the scheme may be expensive for the claimant over time without
assistance, the expenditure incurred by the scheme due to its lack of means testing and co-payment
may represent an inequitable and ultimately non-redistributive use of exchequer funding. While the
original scheme rationale was that very few households could afford such expenses, in the current
community drugs space this rationale may no longer hold, as the maximum annual pharmaceutical
cost payable per household is €960, or between €120 and €180 for medical card recipients.
4.2 Recommendations and Policy Considerations
Publish LTI Data for Years Prior to 2014:
Currently, historical data publicly available on the LTI is limited prior to 2014. In order to facilitate a
better understanding of the scheme overall, a data gathering and updating exercise could be
conducted in order to make a wider range of detailed LTI data available over a longer time series. It
would be particularly valuable for any future investigation to have condition specific data (such as
expenditure and claimant number by condition) available prior to 2014. Additionally, it would be
useful to have detailed pharmaceutical data that is publicly available for years prior to 2017. The
provision of this data would allow for any future analysis to assess trends over a more significant time
period accounting for a more varied range of external factors, particularly in the pharmaceutical area,
as prescribing trends within specific LTI conditions could be better assessed.
Collect More Detailed Claimant Data:
More detailed claimant data, particularly in the area of claimant income level, though there may be
legislative challenges or a requirement to amend legislation to facilitate, would be useful for further
analysis of the scheme, as this would provide better insight into the value added by the scheme and
the level of financial hardship experienced by claimants. Alleviating financial hardship associated with
treatment costs was part of the creation rationale for the LTI scheme, so having access to this data